BJP may fight most seats in Mahayuti, Congress in Maha Vikas Aghadi

Mumbai: The two main alliances in Maharashtra have finalised their seat-sharing arrangements and are putting the finishing touches on their pacts amid a handful of disputes, people familiar with the matter said, although there was no formal announcement from either the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) or the Mahayuti till late Tuesday evening.
According to the people, who asked not to be named, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will contest the most seats from the Mahayuti, around 155, and the Congress, the most from the MVA, around 105-110.
In the former, the Shiv Sena will contest around 85 seats, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) around 45; and in the latter, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) could contest about 90-95 seats and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandara Pawar) around 85.
There are 288 seats in the Maharashtra assembly which goes to polls on November 20.
The seat-sharing formulae for both sides were likely rendered complex by the results of the Lok Sabha elections, where the MVA won 30 of the 48 seats in the state, with the Congress winning 13, the Sena (UBT), nine and the NCP (SP), eight.
The Mahayuti won 18, with the BJP winning nine and the Shiv Sena eight. The NCP (SP) and the Congress were the two best performers in terms of strike rate – 80% and 76.5% respectively – and the BJP and the NCP, the worst — 32% and 25% respectively. Experts say that the Congress’s poor showing in the Haryana assembly polls – it lost the elections everyone expected it to win – may have weakened its negotiating position.
To be sure, the negotiations are also likely to have been made difficult by the fact that it has become the pattern for people not being fielded by their parties to defect, and HT learns that tens of leaders across the political spectrum in Maharashtra are effectively in play.
In the Mahayuti, people aware of the matter said, a formal announcement was held up by lingering disagreements over 20-odd seats. But the problems are being ironed out, said BJP leaders who asked not to be named. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis flew to Delhi on Tuesday night to meet with Union home minister Amit Shah, who has been supervising all seat-sharing talks.
The Mahayuti might also accommodate the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena on a few seats. The MNS announced its candidates for 48 seats on Tuesday night, including Raj Thackeray’s son Amit from Mahim, a seat held by the Sena.
“The conflict is mainly over some seats in Mumbai, in constituencies such as Andheri East, Dindoshi, and Worli,” said a senior leader from Shinde-led Shiv Sena, requesting anonymity. “In addition, the three parties have also decided to swap some seats by mutual agreement, especially where we feel the sitting MLA is not the most deserving candidate.”
If this formula holds, it will signal a big win for chief minister Eknath Shinde who split the Sena two years ago and joined hands with the BJP, along with 40 MLAs. His faction is now likely to contest over double the number of lawmakers his group held. If the Sena gets around 85 seats to contest in the Mahayuti, it will also be almost equal to the number of seats the Sena (UBT) will be contesting from the MVA.
In contrast, if the formula holds, it might mean bad news for deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar who split from his uncle Sharad Pawar in July last year with 42 lawmakers. If the Ajit Pawar faction gets only 50-odd seats, it will significantly diminish his standing in the Mahayuti and also strengthen Sharad Pawar’s claim that his is the real NCP.
Across the aisle, in the MVA, negotiations hit fever pitch on Tuesday as leaders of the three parties were locked in a meeting at a suburban hotel till late in the evening. “We have decided the formula and it will be declared on Wednesday,” declared Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut after the meeting.
The seat-sharing formula is set to be different from the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections when the Sena (UBT) fought the maximum – 21 of the 48 seats, the Congress 17 and the NCP (SP) 10. But when the results were announced, the Congress emerged as the single-largest party with 13 seats.
The seat talks that stretched on for weeks formally resumed between the three parties on Monday after senior Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat, who was appointed as a mediator, met NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar and Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray at their respective residences. The Congress leadership wanted to ease the tension built during the hectic parleys that did not end on a positive note, leading to a trading of barbs between Sena (UBT) and Congress leaders last week, said people aware of developments.
“A few seats are left that need further discussion,” said Thorat after meeting Pawar on Tuesday morning. “There is no dispute among us. All three parties have strong candidates and hence are pressing their claims,” he emphasised, hinting that the three partners ironed out differences on most seats.
Thorat, who is known as a soft-spoken leader, managed to ease the tension in the MVA and brought the number of disputed seats to only 12 out of 288 seats, said the people cited above.
Among them, the dispute is between NCP (SP) and Sena (UBT) on six seats — Sangola, Junnar, Khed Alandi, Chinchwad, Bhosri and Paranda, said the people cited above. “We are trying to finish the talks today itself,” state Congress chief Nana Patole said.